Auckland city business and economy report 2008

Population

Between 2006 and 2007, Auckland city's population grew faster than New Zealand's, but slower than the region's to reach 433,200 people. This growth pattern is expected to continue.

Changes in the ethnic structure and social factors have contributed to a greater share of Auckland city's population who are of working age.

Net migration is down slightly in Auckland city, which is reducing demand in the housing market.

In 2007, Auckland city had an estimated population of 433,200 people. This was up 1.1 per cent on the previous year and is a similar growth to the last three years.

The increase was above that of 1.0 per cent for New Zealand as a whole, but lower than the 1.7 per cent increase for the Auckland region.

It is anticipated that Auckland city will have an annual growth rate of 1.4 per cent to 2016. This is also faster than the 0.9 per cent growth rate expected for New Zealand as a whole, but slower than the 1.5 per cent expected for the Auckland region. This suggests the region's population dominance of New Zealand will increase over the medium term, fuelled especially by population growth outside Auckland city.

Annual population growth

Usual resident population as at June

Source: Statistics New Zealand.
Projections are annual percentage changes.

Auckland city has a higher share of one-person and other non-family households (for example, flatting situations) than the region or New Zealand.

The different structure of household composition is due to social trends, economic pressures and cultural preferences. Many people relocate to Auckland city for employment and do not live in family situations. The presence of large tertiary institutions and a higher share of the housing stock as apartments also contributes to the higher share of non-family households.

Although the median age in Auckland city has remained at 33 years between the last two censuses, the share of the population in working age brackets has increased from 70 per cent in 2001 to 72 per cent in 2006. Changes in the city's ethnic structure have contributed to this, particularly the increase in people of Asian ethnicity and decrease of people of European ethnicity, with the former having a higher share of its population within the working-age bracket.

Other areas within the Auckland region (Rodney, North Shore, Waitakere and Manukau) have lower shares of their population within the working-age bracket. Manukau and Waitakere cities also have considerably younger age profiles than Auckland city due to the large share of Pacific Island people and people of Maori ethnicity living in these areas, who have a younger age profile. Rodney and North Shore have a lower share of Pacific Island people than Auckland city. They also have a larger share of people of European ethnicity, who have an older age profile.

External migration flows (Auckland city)

Annual totals March years

Source: Statistics New Zealand.

Auckland city's net external migration (ie migration to/from overseas) has remained relatively stable over the last four years. Yet in the year to March 2008, both arrivals and departures have increased. The latter has risen slightly more, meaning that annual net migration is down slightly from the year to March 2007. Lower net migration numbers are having a negative impact on New Zealand's housing market by lessening demand.

Net migration is well below that experienced in the year to March 2003, mainly due to a large drop in arrivals between 2003 and 2005. However, arrivals have gradually increased over the last three years and net migration is 44 per cent higher than a decade ago.

Auckland city was the only city within the Auckland region to experience a substantial net migration gain over the year to March. It attracted a disproportionate share of the region's (50 per cent)¹¹ and New Zealand's (20 per cent) migrant arrivals. However, this is down from 60 per cent and 24 per cent respectively in 2004, due to Manukau and North Shore cities attracting a larger share of arrivals.

¹¹ "External migration data should be treated with some caution. While Auckland appears to have higher net migration than other cities, this may be partly due to the fact that when filling out the immigration arrival card, people often do not differentiate between Auckland city and other cities in the Auckland region. Auckland, as New Zealand's main international gateway, may also be the first stop for many migrants who are unsure where they intend to live on a more permanent basis" (Quality of Life '07, in 12 of New Zealand's cities, p19).

Published August 2008